A new study of nearly 900,000 students at Texas public colleges found that what you study predicts your earnings far more reliably than where you study. Students who graduated from architecture or engineering programs earned more than $200,000 above their non-college peers over the study period. Liberal arts graduates earned about $35,000 more. School selectivity and price were not meaningful predictors of earnings. The program — not the prestige — was the deciding variable.

The conventional wisdom about college goes something like this: get into the best school you can afford, and the name on the diploma will carry you. Parents repeat it. Counselors reinforce it. US News rankings are built around it.

A large-scale study of actual earnings data tells a more complicated story.

What the Study Found

The Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, working with independent research firm Mathematica, analyzed earnings records for more than 900,000 students who enrolled in bachelor's, associate's, or certificate programs at Texas public colleges between the 2008–09 and 2018–19 academic years. The study tracked what those students actually earned compared to Texans who did not attend college.1

The findings were reported by The Chronicle of Higher Education and San Antonio's Texas Public Radio in early 2026.2

The main finding: what you study matters more than where you study.

Researchers found that school selectivity — how hard it is to get in — and tuition price were not strong predictors of future earnings. Family income was also not a consistent factor. The variable that consistently predicted earnings was program choice.

The Numbers by Field

  • Architecture and engineering: Graduates earned more than $200,000 above their non-college peers over the study's timeframe
  • Liberal arts: Graduates earned approximately $35,000 more
  • Average bachelor's degree: $86,806 cumulative earnings advantage after 15 years

The gap between the best-paying and lowest-paying program types is more than $165,000 over a 15-year window. That is not a rounding error.

The Break-Even Timeline

One of the more useful findings: for the average bachelor's degree graduate, it took nine years for cumulative earnings to exceed what they would have earned without college — after accounting for both tuition costs and the "opportunity cost" of lost wages during enrollment.1

Nine years is not a short payoff window. It matters most for students who are not sure whether college is the right path at all, or for those considering expensive private colleges for programs where the earnings outcomes are not differentiated.

For context, the average cost of college has been rising for years. Before committing to a specific school, it's worth calculating whether the earnings profile of your intended program justifies the price differential between options.

What Doesn't Predict Earnings

The study specifically found that the selectivity of the institution and its price tag were not strong predictors of student earnings outcomes. This challenges a core assumption in how most families approach the college search.

A student at a less selective Texas public university studying computer science was predicted to out-earn a student at a more selective institution studying a low-earnings field. The program, not the institution, drove the outcome.1

This doesn't mean school choice is irrelevant. Institutional resources, faculty networks, research opportunities, and graduate school placement can all matter — particularly for students aiming at graduate-level careers where specific institutional prestige carries weight. But for the average undergraduate focused on career entry, the study suggests that program selection deserves at least as much attention as school selection.

When researching schools, ask admissions offices for median earnings data by major — not just institution-wide. The federal College Scorecard (collegescorecard.ed.gov) shows median earnings by field of study at the institution level. Use it before committing to a school for a specific program.

How to Apply This

Choose the field first. The most regretted college majors are often the ones students chose without thinking about outcomes. Before picking a school, develop a clearer sense of what field you want to work in — or what fields you want to explore. The most popular college majors page shows what students are actually choosing; engineering and computer science consistently lead the earnings rankings.

Research program-level outcomes, not just school rankings. Ask: what do graduates from this specific program at this specific school earn five years out? Many schools publish this. The federal College Scorecard requires it.

Understand the liberal arts tradeoff. A liberal arts degree builds skills that are genuinely valuable — writing, analysis, adaptability — but the earnings data reflects a slower financial payoff, particularly in the early career years. Students considering double majoring or adding a technical minor should weigh that option against the earnings data for their primary field.

Don't over-optimize for school prestige alone. If two schools are realistic options and one costs $40,000 more for the same program, the Texas study's findings suggest that cost difference is likely to be the bigger factor in your financial outcome — not the school's ranking.

For more on how students are evaluating the value of their degrees, see our coverage of the Lumina-Gallup survey on whether college is worth it.

What to Do Now

  • Use College Scorecard (collegescorecard.ed.gov) to compare earnings by major at schools you're considering
  • Before deciding on a school, confirm what the school's outcomes are specifically for your intended program — not just the school overall
  • If your intended major has low earnings outcomes, factor in graduate school as a second-stage investment — and plan for it accordingly
  • Review the college planning checklist to build a structured process for evaluating schools and majors together

Footnotes

  1. Young, J. (2026). An Unusual New Study of Nearly a Million Students Details What College Does for Earnings. The Chronicle of Higher Education. https://www.chronicle.com/article/an-unusual-new-study-of-nearly-a-million-students-details-what-college-does-for-earnings ↩ ↩2 ↩3

  2. Texas Public Radio. (2026, February 23). Not all paths to college and career readiness pay off equally for Texas students, study finds. Texas Public Radio. https://www.tpr.org/news/2026-02-23/not-all-paths-to-college-and-career-readiness-pay-off-equally-for-texas-students-study-finds ↩