A Gallup and Lumina Foundation survey conducted June 1–15, 2026 found only 38% of American adults have "a great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in higher education—down from 42% last year and from 57% a decade ago. The drop now crosses party lines: even Democrats, historically the strongest supporters of higher education, hit a record low at 50%. The reasons cited are costs, politics, and a growing fear that AI is making degrees less necessary.

For most of the past decade, skepticism about college was largely a partisan divide. Republicans had been cooling on higher education since around 2017. Democrats and independents held steady. That buffer is now gone.

A Gallup and Lumina Foundation survey released July 14, 2026 found public confidence in higher education has fallen again—and this time the sharpest single-year drop came from Democrats.1

The Full Numbers

The survey covered 1,001 adults aged 18 and older across all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Interviews were conducted by telephone June 1–15, 2026.

Results:

  • 38% of Americans have "a great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in higher education
  • That's down from 42% in 2025 and from 57% in 2015
  • Democrats: 50% confident—down 11 points from 61% last year, a record low for the group
  • Independents: 39% confident
  • Republicans: 23% confident
  • Adults with a four-year degree: 43% confident, compared to 35% among those without one

— Gallup/Lumina Foundation survey, June 2026—down from 57% in 2015 and 42% in 2025

Why Confidence Is Dropping

Among respondents who said they lack confidence in higher education, the most commonly named reasons were:

Political agendas. A large share of respondents said they perceive colleges as pushing ideological viewpoints rather than encouraging open inquiry. This concern showed up across party lines, not just among conservatives.

Costs. Tuition has increased faster than inflation for decades. Many families question whether the financial commitment pays off, particularly when graduates carry significant debt. If you're working through that question, our guide to whether college is worth it in 2026 lays out the actual data.

Workforce preparation. The perception that graduates leave campus without practical skills employers actually need has grown. Employers have increasingly flagged gaps in technical ability, communication, and problem-solving.

AI Is a New Factor

For the first time in this survey, AI showed up prominently as a driver of concern. 46% of respondents said they believe AI will threaten the value of a college degree. Only 20% said they think AI will make degrees more important.

That 46% figure reflects public perception, not a settled prediction. Whether AI diminishes the value of your specific degree depends heavily on which field you're entering. Degrees that develop judgment, communication, and domain expertise remain in demand. Degrees that primarily teach tasks AI can automate are a different conversation.

What This Actually Means for Your Decision

Declining public confidence doesn't automatically mean college is the wrong choice. It means the average outcome of going to college has become more variable—and the gap between a well-chosen path and a poorly chosen one is wider than it used to be.

A few things that actually matter:

ROI varies by school and major. Two students graduating with identical degrees in the same field from different schools can have very different outcomes five years later. Our breakdown of college degree ROI by major shows where the returns are real and where they're thin.

Lower cost doesn't mean lower quality. Some of the most affordable colleges with strong outcomes consistently outperform expensive private schools on return-on-investment measures. Starting at a community college cuts costs by 60% or more for the first two years without sacrificing transfer options—here's how the costs actually compare.

The alternatives deserve honest consideration. Trade school vs. college isn't a fringe comparison anymore. Some skilled trades pay strong starting salaries without four years of debt. That's worth running the numbers on before committing to a four-year path.

Ask the right questions before you commit. Graduation rate. Median earnings at 1 and 4 years post-graduation. Average debt at graduation. These numbers are public and specific to each school and program. Our guide to how to choose a college covers exactly which data points to pull and where to find them.

The Department of Education's College Scorecard (collegescorecard.ed.gov) shows median earnings by school and by specific program of study. Look up the actual earnings data for graduates of the program you're considering—not just the school's overall reputation—before making any decision.

What the Numbers Don't Show

Gallup's companion research on students and recent graduates tells a different story than the general public poll. Among people who actually went to college, 75% said their degree was or has been worth the cost. That number hasn't moved much even as general public confidence has fallen.2

That gap—between what the public thinks and what graduates actually report—suggests that perception has run ahead of reality. Families most likely to be disappointed are the ones who pick a school or program based on name recognition or habit rather than outcomes data.

When comparing offers, run the numbers carefully. Our guide to comparing financial aid packages can help you build an honest side-by-side.

Next Steps

  1. Look up your specific program. Visit collegescorecard.ed.gov and search by school and field of study. Median earnings data is available and specific.
  2. Run a real cost comparison. Sticker price is rarely what you pay. Request net price estimates from every school on your list.
  3. Consider the full range of options. Community college, trade school, and certificate programs aren't fallback choices—they're real paths that may fit your goals better than a four-year degree right now.

The poll shows trust has dropped. But individual outcomes are made by individual decisions—not national averages.

Footnotes

  1. Gallup & Lumina Foundation. (2026, July 14). Confidence in U.S. Higher Education Slips Back Slightly. Gallup News. https://news.gallup.com/poll/712322/confidence-higher-education-slips-back-slightly.aspx ↩

  2. Lumina Foundation. (2026, July 14). Americans haven't given up on higher ed. They're asking more of it. https://www.luminafoundation.org/news-and-views/americans-havent-given-up-on-higher-ed-theyre-asking-more-of-it/ ↩