New research published April 13, 2026 projects that 442 of the nation's 1,700 private, nonprofit four-year colleges—serving roughly 670,000 students combined—are at risk of closing or merging within the next ten years. The research comes from Robert Kelchen, a higher education finance professor at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and represents the most detailed closure-risk mapping to date. Three colleges announced closures this month alone.

A new projection released this week gives the most specific picture yet of which colleges are financially fragile—and how many students are enrolled in them.

The research, published April 13, 2026 and reported by NPR, finds that 442 of the nation's 1,700 private, nonprofit four-year colleges and universities are at risk of closing or having to merge within the next decade. Those 442 schools collectively enroll approximately 670,000 students.1

The lead researcher, Robert Kelchen, director of the Department of Educational Leadership and Policy Studies at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, analyzed financial data from thousands of institutions. His finding: nearly one-third of private, nonprofit colleges and universities nationwide posted operating deficits in 2024.1

That means a school spent more than it took in. For tuition-dependent schools with no large endowment to cushion losses, deficits are not a sign of short-term trouble. They are a countdown.

What the Numbers Actually Mean

More than 120 institutions are at the very highest closure risk, according to analysis by Huron Consulting Group cited in the same reporting. The remaining 300-plus in Kelchen's at-risk category face serious financial stress but have more runway to respond.

The leadership of higher education is aware of the problem. According to a survey by the American Council on Education, 86 percent of college and university leaders say they are worried about their institution's long-term financial viability. A separate survey by Hanover Research and Inside Higher Ed found that one-fifth of college and university presidents have had serious discussions about merging with another institution.1

These are not small regional schools that most people have never heard of. The at-risk category spans a wide range of sizes, states, and missions—though the heaviest concentration is among small, tuition-dependent private nonprofit schools in the Northeast and Midwest.

442

Three Schools Closing This Month

April 2026 has brought a string of closure announcements that illustrate what the numbers look like up close.

Sterling College (Craftsbury Common, Vermont) announced last fall it would close after the spring 2026 semester. The school had fewer than 40 students enrolled this semester—a number that makes it impossible to cover basic operating costs. Sterling joins a list of closed Vermont institutions that includes Goddard College, Green Mountain College, and Southern Vermont College.1

University of Saint Katherine (San Marcos, California) announced it will close on April 25. The school cited post-COVID financial losses, persistent operating deficits, and declining enrollment—the same cluster of factors driving closures nationwide.

Anna Maria College (Paxton, Massachusetts) has not announced closure, but the state has. On April 10, 2026, the Massachusetts Department of Higher Education posted a formal notice declaring that Anna Maria "may not have sufficient resources" to sustain operations and enroll students through the next academic year. Since 2019, enrollment has dropped by roughly 300 students from 1,458. The college recently received a $5 million anonymous donation—the largest in its history—which it is using to try to stabilize finances.1

If you are choosing between colleges this spring, financial health is part of the decision. A school that closes after your sophomore year can disrupt your credits, require you to transfer, and in some cases delay graduation by a year or more. Ask every school you're seriously considering: what is your operating surplus or deficit, and what is your endowment? Public universities are required to report this; private nonprofit schools file 990 forms that show financial data.

Why This Is Happening Now

The financial stress at small private colleges is not new, but several forces are accelerating it in 2026.

Demographic cliff. The number of traditional college-age students began declining this year—a trend demographers have been forecasting since the 2008 recession reduced birth rates. We covered this in detail in The 2026 Enrollment Cliff Explained. Schools that relied on growing or stable enrollment for their financial models are now facing the reality those models assumed away.

Federal funding pressure. Many small colleges rely heavily on federal research grants, TRIO support programs, and student financial aid. Budget proposals to cut TRIO, FSEOG, and other programs—covered in Colleges Are Cutting Majors and Jobs—land hardest on institutions with the smallest reserves.

Cost structure. A small private college with 800 students has most of the same fixed overhead as one with 2,000 students—buildings, staff, compliance, accreditation. When enrollment drops 20 percent, revenue drops 20 percent. But costs don't drop proportionally.

Tuition fatigue. Some schools have raised prices year after year to cover deficits, but families are increasingly unwilling to pay private-college prices without meaningful scholarship support. Our guide on how much college costs shows how dramatically net prices vary once aid is factored in.

How to Evaluate a School's Financial Health

If you are building your college list right now, how to build a college list covers the fundamentals. But a few financial-health questions belong on that list:

Look up the school's Form 990. Private nonprofits file 990s with the IRS annually. ProPublica's Nonprofit Explorer makes them searchable. The key figure is the change in net assets at year-end. Consistent year-over-year declines are a warning sign.

Ask about the endowment. Colleges with large endowments have a financial cushion. Schools with endowments under $10 million per student enrolled are considered financially thin. Schools with no endowment, or endowments they are actively drawing down, are at the highest risk.

Check the accreditation status. Regional accreditors and the Department of Education's "Heightened Cash Monitoring" list flag schools with financial problems before the public knows. The ED's list is public and searchable.

Talk to enrolled students and recent graduates. Ask whether programs have been cut, whether faculty have left, whether facilities are maintained. Institutional decay tends to show up in the lived experience before it shows up in press releases.

Look at the college visit checklist. Campus visits are a good time to ask candid financial questions—not just about the school's standing, but about the specific department you plan to study in.

Small private colleges are not all risky, and large universities are not all safe. USC laid off nearly 1,000 employees this year to cover a $230 million deficit. The right question is not "public vs. private" or "big vs. small" — it's "what does this school's recent financial trajectory look like, and does their mission align with the students they actually enroll?"

What If You Are Already Enrolled at a School That Closes

If your school closes before you graduate, federal law requires it to arrange a teach-out agreement—a plan for you to complete your degree at another institution without losing credits. The quality of these arrangements varies widely. Some teach-out partners are nearby and well-matched; others are far away or poor fits for your program.

What does not automatically transfer: your scholarships and grants. Most institutional aid awards are institution-specific. If you transfer, you start the financial aid process over at the new school. Our guide on safety schools that are actually good includes schools with strong financial footing, in case you need a transfer option with strong merit aid.

For families working with constrained budgets, college planning for low-income families covers how to evaluate affordability and stability together.

Next Steps

  • Check any private college you're seriously considering on ProPublica's Nonprofit Explorer (search the school's name)
  • Ask your admissions rep directly: "Is your institution operating at a surplus or deficit?"
  • Review the U.S. Department of Education's Heightened Cash Monitoring list
  • If you're between a financially fragile private school and a financially stable public university, price the difference at net cost — not sticker price

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Footnotes

  1. NPR. (2026, April 13). More than a quarter of private colleges are at risk of closing, a new projection shows. https://www.npr.org/2026/04/13/nx-s1-5777582/many-private-colleges-at-risk-of-closing ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4 ↩5

  2. Hechinger Report. (2026, April 13). More than a quarter of private colleges are at risk of closing, new projection shows. https://hechingerreport.org/more-than-a-quarter-of-private-colleges-are-at-risk-of-closing-new-projection-shows/ ↩