A new projection from Huron Consulting Group, published April 13, 2026 by NPR and the Hechinger Report, finds that 442 of the nation's 1,700 private nonprofit four-year colleges — serving roughly 670,000 students — are at risk of closing or merging within the next 10 years. More than 120 of those schools are at the very highest risk level. This is not a forecast of distant problems: more than 80 private nonprofits have already closed or merged since 2020.

A consulting group that works directly with colleges on financial strategy just published one of the most specific assessments of higher education risk we've seen. The numbers are harder to dismiss than the usual "demographic headwinds" warnings.

What the Report Found

Huron Consulting Group analyzed enrollment trends, tuition revenue, total assets, outstanding debt, and cash on hand across the country's private nonprofit four-year institutions.1 Their projection: 442 of 1,700 such colleges — more than one in four — are in territory that puts them at genuine risk of closure or forced merger within the next decade.

Of those 442, more than 120 are at the very highest risk level.1

The report was published this morning by NPR and the Hechinger Report, which used Sterling College in Vermont as its central case study. Sterling — a school currently running its final semester with fewer than 40 students enrolled — is the seventh private college in Vermont to close since 2016.1

Sterling will hold its final commencement in May 2026. Teach-out agreements are in place with the College of the Atlantic, Community College of Vermont, and Champlain College.

Why So Many Schools Are Struggling

Nearly one-third of private nonprofit colleges nationwide posted operating deficits in 2024, according to research cited in the report by Robert Kelchen, director of the Department of Educational Leadership and Policy Studies at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville.1

The pressures stack:

Enrollment decline. The demographic shift analysts call the enrollment cliff has arrived. Fewer traditional-age students are entering the pipeline — the downstream effect of lower birth rates after the 2008 recession. Small private colleges in the Northeast and Midwest face the sharpest drops.

Tuition dependency. Small private colleges typically pull 70 to 80 percent of operating revenue from tuition. When enrollment falls, revenue falls with it — immediately.

Cost pressure that doesn't scale down. Faculty contracts, utilities, deferred maintenance, accreditation fees, and compliance costs do not shrink proportionally when enrollment does.

How to Spot a School Under Financial Stress

Most students don't think to investigate a college's financial health when building their college list. That's changing — and it needs to.

Watch for these signs of a financially stressed college: enrollment declining three or more consecutive years; tuition discount rates above 55 percent; operating deficits in IRS Form 990 filings; recent program cuts or faculty layoffs; accreditor warnings or "show cause" orders; bond rating downgrades.

Here's where to check:

IRS Form 990: Every private nonprofit files this annually. Search for any college on ProPublica's Nonprofit Explorer. Look at total revenue, expenses, and net assets over five years. A multi-year pattern of declining revenue and growing deficits is a serious flag.

IPEDS: The National Center for Education Statistics publishes enrollment trends for every accredited school at nces.ed.gov. A school that has lost 20 percent or more of its enrollment over five years is worth scrutinizing further.

Accreditor status: Search your school's regional accreditor website for any sanctions, warnings, or probationary status. These are public and searchable.

If Your School Closes After You Enroll

Federal protections exist. If your school closes while you're actively enrolled, or within 120 days of your last day of attendance, you may be eligible for closed school loan discharge — cancellation of your federal student loans without penalty. Our guide to student loan forgiveness programs covers the eligibility criteria and how to apply.

Teach-out agreements are the other main protection: formal arrangements where the closing institution transfers students to partner schools, with credits recognized and degree paths maintained. The Goddard College closure and the Labouré College of Healthcare closure both show how this plays out in real time — the timelines, the credit transfer process, and what students need to do.

If you're considering a proactive transfer before a struggling school closes, start with how to transfer colleges and community college as a bridge option.

The Larger Context

This projection does not mean 442 schools will definitely close. Huron's analysis identifies risk, not certainty. Some schools will find merger partners. Some will cut programs aggressively enough to stabilize. Some will attract new student populations through online or workforce programs.

But the pace of closures has already been accelerating. More than 80 private nonprofits closed or merged between 2020 and 2025.1 Sixteen colleges closed in 2025 alone.2

The assumption that small private colleges are stable by default — that they've been around long enough to be safe — is no longer something students and families should take for granted.

Footnotes

  1. NPR / Hechinger Report. (2026, April 13). More than a quarter of private colleges are at risk of closing, a new projection shows. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2026/04/13/nx-s1-5777582/many-private-colleges-at-risk-of-closing ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4 ↩5

  2. Higher Ed Dive. (2026). Closures and mergers. Higher Ed Dive. https://www.highereddive.com/topic/closures-and-mergers/ ↩